Why This Bear?

People are constantly asking me why is the stock market going down. What is causing this bear market? It is relatively simple so don't ask an economist. He will give you a 200-page answer that is undecipherable. Can you understand Mr. Greenspan?

Let's first realize what it is that makes a stock price go up. The basic reason is that the investor thinks that the company will make a larger profit and pay a good dividend - one that is better than it is now doing. People buy in anticipation of better earnings. Really, it is that simple.

Conversely, when a stock starts down investors think the company can no longer sustain its sales and earnings and that the current price is too high so it is sold. Every other reason you hear is hype, smoke and mirrors. Last year we saw more than 1,000 stocks on the Nasdaq exchange lose more than 90% of their value. Many of those stocks have lost even more this year and scores of them are either out of business or been merged into other companies. Their anticipated sales and earnings never showed up.

When a large section of the market is adversely affected with shrinking sales that action many times begins to slip over into other sectors. Last year it was the technology group as a whole that suffered the most. This year it will be almost all the New York Stock Exchange stocks. We have just witnessed the biggest point loss in one week in NYSE history. In the long run it is going to go much lower after its rally.

The market was already headed down before the World Trade Center tragedy and this single act triggered a great amount of emotional selling. The bear market, which has been with us for about a year, would have gone down to the September 21, 2001 lows anyway even if the New York disaster had not occurred.

One thing investors do not like is uncertainty. People want their money to be safe so they will sell some of what they have and will not buy. Those with 401Ks can transfer to money markets. It has become very evident that almost every type of business with a few exceptions will have less sales and shrinking profits. It is not a time to buy. The talking heads on TV are telling you that you can't afford to be out of the market. Oh, yes you can. The best place for the next several months is in a nice safe Money Market fund or some type of short-term bond no-load mutual fund.

Until the market uncertainty goes away and profits start improving for a majority of companies it is best to maintain a cash position. That may not be until the middle of next year. In the meantime cash is king. Don't let anyone talk you into buying anything. The bear is still loose. Don't let him gobble up your investments.

Al Thomas' book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

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